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Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider

Rex Brown

Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider Rex Brown Amazon Price: $94.95
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By: Wiley-Interscience
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Editorial Review:

The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.

Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider’s factual and value judgments.  DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions.  It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic.

Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge.

Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix.

Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including:

· Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives

· Risk analysis and assessment

· Communicating and justifying controversial decisions

· Personal life choices and political judgments

· Adapting decision aid to organizations

The book’s broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education.

An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email ialine@wiley.com) or directly from rexvbrown@aol.com.

Re-create Your Life : Transforming Yourself and Your World With the Decision Maker Process

Morty Lefkoe

Re-create Your Life : Transforming Yourself and Your World With the Decision Maker Process Morty Lefkoe List Price: $22.95
By: Andrews Mcmeel Pub
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 8 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

A good news and a bad news 3 out of 5 stars.
36 of 40 people found this review helpful.

The good news is delivered to you right after the introductory chit-chat. You'll be astonished to learn the reason why the traditional methods of solving one's problems don't usually work. Mr. Lefkoe has invented a completely new technique that is free from this lack and is able to reform your thinking in such a way that you stop running into the same problems over and over again.

His main idea is that many problems are caused by destructive beliefs. While traditional methods try to reform your thinking by convincing you that the harmful beliefs are totally untrue and unfounded, Mr. Lefkoe's method doesn't involve challenging the beliefs. Instead, you are to find out how the belief first evolved (usually it was in your childhood). When you have realized how the circumstances you were in produced the belief, you'll understand that the belief evolved because back then, your access to information and your capability of interpreting it were limited. It was quite reasonable for you to draw such conclusions from the circumstances you were in and the information you had. However, there is no reason for you to maintain this belief now. It is only one possible interpretation of the experiences you've had - there are numerous others and you can choose which one you prefer.

At that point you clearly see that this is just what you have missed all those years. You're ready to kiss Mr. Lefkoe's feet and are dying to finally know the details of this life-saver. Then comes the bad news: you can't do it on your own. This technique isn't suitable for self-help and can only be applied by a professional counselor. There's but a handful of them and they are God knows where.

You might feel cheated. But, if you happen to take a second look at the inner sleeve, you'll read: "describes a process that enables people to [---] solve their [---] problems". Really, no one has promised that in this book, a method will be presented THAT YOU CAN USE. You made it all up by yourself, didn't you? (I guess this must be what they call the American way of telling the truth.)

Well, I may have no right to feel betrayed, but I still do. It's quite possible that the method isn't suitable for self-treatment, but I'm absolutely convinced that if Mr. Lefkoe would have wanted to help us, he could have given us at least something - some kinds of questionnaires, a list of a few hundred of most common beliefs etc., instead of wasting a whole third of the book on some world-reforming daydreams. But he won't do that (even his web site doesn't contain anything usable), because he wants you to go to him and pay extra for getting actual help. What about those who live on the other side of the world? I guess he just doesn't give a damn.

It is obvious that Mr. Lefkoe didn't write this book in order to provide useful service to the readers but to advertise his seminars. I bet that if you'll ever have a chance to talk to him personally, he won't say you a word of any importance without having received advance payment. He will have to do without my money, however, because I returned the book. Though the book was somewhat beneficial for me, I just didn't feel Mr. Lefkoe deserved to get any money for this 240-page sales letter. Besides, reading through parts 1 and 2 once is all you need - the essential information in this book would fit on a half of a page.

By the way, some reviewers wonder why Mr. Lefkoe dwells so long over his obscure social utopias. I'll tell you why. If he could convince governments or even big companies to apply his technique, he wouldn't have to worry about his daily bread for the rest of his life. Bothering with individuals is so unsecure - you have to approach them individually and find a personal solution for each one of them. Do you imagine how much more money Mr. Lefkoe could make by giving standardized counseling to tens or even hundreds of people simultaneously?

To summarize: If you are in a desperate situation, you might want to give this book a try. You must realize that it will be clutching at a straw, but the new ideas presented in the book just might be of some help. If you don't feel desperate, you can spare reading this book. It delivers much less than what the publisher tries to make you believe. I'm giving it four stars for contents minus one for inhumanity.

Editorial Review:

The founder of the Decision Maker Institute offers a process that promises to identify the basic inner beliefs that stunt our behavior problems and then eliminate those problems with beliefs of our own choosing. 40,000 first printing. Newbridge Bk Club. Tour.

Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World, New Edition 2001 (Analytic Hierarchy Process Series, Vol. 2)

Thomas L. Saaty

Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World, New Edition 2001 (Analytic Hierarchy Process Series, Vol. 2) Thomas L. Saaty Amazon Price: $30.00
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 2 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Excellent book 4 out of 5 stars.
15 of 16 people found this review helpful.

The content is definitely designed for managers and decision makers. The beginning chapters deal heavily with overall situation in which the reader must make a decision together with its consequences. The way the subjet is presented is excellent. Everyone knows that complex unstructured problems are hard to handle, but the approach this book takes makes it much easier to swallow. The fact that it uses simple arithmetic is also a beautiful plus. I have burrowed several of its case studies to use in real life financial decisions

Successful Book 4 out of 5 stars.
5 of 5 people found this review helpful.

I believe this is a very good book to teach this subject from ground up. However, readers not so much experienced with computers get the wrong impression that one can't solve an AHP model without Expert Choice software, which is wrong! If you have adequate hands-on experience with Microsoft Excel, you will see that it is more than enough to tackle even rather tough models like my colleagues and I did in the case of a model consisting of 8 criteria and 39 subcriteria. The good thing is that the book uses simple arithmetic throughout!

Editorial Review:

This is a book of case studies in multicriteria decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The basics of the theory are described in a clear, non-technical manner with many examples. Suitable for business leaders and also the best book for introducing the AHP to students.

Patterns of Problem Solving (2nd Edition)

Moshe F. Rubinstein, Iris R. Firstenberg

Patterns of Problem Solving (2nd Edition) Moshe F. Rubinstein, Iris R. Firstenberg List Price: $104.00
By: Prentice Hall
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 2 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Outstanding Overview 5 out of 5 stars.
3 of 3 people found this review helpful.

I first used this book in my freshman electrical engineering course and have kept it next to my desk through graduate school, my tenure at Bell Labs, and in my current practice. It is an excellent and unusually clear introduction to a wide variety of topics in mathematics, computer science, and information theory. I highly recommend this book.

Good foundation 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

Me too Jason. This book impressed a 17 year old student enough to have him drag it around for thirty years. I hope Colleges and Universities look to a course like this becoming a requirement and not an elective. What this book shows has allowed me, over the years, to sharpen my thinking to a fine edge.

Cracking the Intuition Code : Understanding and Mastering Your Intuitive Power

Gail Ferguson

Cracking the Intuition Code : Understanding and Mastering Your Intuitive Power Gail Ferguson List Price: $23.95
By: Contemporary Books
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Total reviews: 9 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Insightful 2 out of 5 stars.
18 of 19 people found this review helpful.

This is a unique book about intuition because it circumvents the spiritual aspects usually associated with intuition. Instead, it proposes that this is a biologically-based sensory system that is normal for the human species. Lots of thought-provoking insights into the human mind and the pros and cons of over-rationalizing our environment. The first part could have been cut in half, but the shorter, second part is priceless. I suggest for those who prefer associating intuition with spiritual aspects of one's life, to read Carol Ann Liaros's Intuition Technologies, which has additional exercises for developing one's intuitive abilities.

Fascinating Insights That Can Change Your Life 5 out of 5 stars.
13 of 13 people found this review helpful.

Gail Ferguson provides fascinating insight into many of the unexplained feelings and "signals" that all of us experience every single day, and the impact these curious events have on our lives. Unfortunately, many of us - especially those of us who are men - tend to ignore these occurances far too often. Gail Ferguson has helped me understand that intuition is not just a "woman thing" but a meaningful force in all our lives, regardless of our gender.

She paints a clear picture of intuition as a real-world process with practical applications that can significantly alter the outcomes we experience in our lives, and illustrates the salient points with gripping, often amazing true stories and examples.

Since reading "Cracking the Intuition Code" I have been more consciously aware of and cognitively attuned to the intuitive signals that come my way. Thanks to this remarkable book, I have learned to act on those signals and follow though much more often than I had previously. When I do, I find more success and peace of mind. Unfortunately, sometimes I still ignore those intuitive signals. I am still learning that when I do things usually don't turn out as well as I would have liked.

What's more, as a professional sales trainer and performance development consultant I am incorporating many of the ideas from the book into my work. As a result, I am finding that the most successful salespeople, virtually without exception, rely on their intuition to a significant degree. I am also finding that almost all salespeople can develop more customers and close more sales by honing and practicing the skills and techniques that Gail Ferguson describes and explains in this intruiging book.

Highly recommended for everyone who wants to take their personal performance to the next level!

Editorial Review:

An intuition expert unveils the mystery of one of mankind's underused senses, showing precisely how to recognize and utilize intuition for the enhancement of one's life.

The Adaptive Decision Maker

John W. Payne, James R. Bettman, Eric J. Johnson

The Adaptive Decision Maker John W. Payne, James R. Bettman, Eric J. Johnson Amazon Price: $99.00
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 2 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

An excellent insight on adaptive behavior 5 out of 5 stars.
9 of 10 people found this review helpful.

A book worth reading to develop an insight on the principles that guide consumer information processing and selection of relevant decision strategies in various choice environments. The framework that is presented here is both intuitively appealing and useful in guiding marketing thought and practice. The book itself is written to appeal to multiple classes of readers, i.e., general interest readers, academics, and practicing professionals. The underlying notions of consumer decision making based on adaptive behavior; and information processing based on "bounded rationality" are presented within a well-researched framework. The book is developed to provide useful insights on decision behavior emerging from various disciplinary orientations like, the behavioral sciences, cognitive psychology, consumer studies, and marketing among others. The framework proposed is well applied in everyday decision situations that pertain to businesses and consumers. The authors themselves are renowned researchers in their fields and therefore provide invaluable insight on adaptive consumer behavior and the limitations of human information processing.

Editorial Review:

The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyze how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.

Beyond Strategic Planning : Developing and Implementing Winning Strategies for Engineers, Architects and Construction Companies

Clare G. Ross CMC

Beyond Strategic Planning : Developing and Implementing Winning Strategies for Engineers, Architects and Construction Companies Clare G. Ross CMC Amazon Price: $65.00
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Editorial Review:

In the engineering, architecture and construction industries, change is happening at an accellerating rate. Technology is transforming the way firms do business. Clients and competitors are putting new demands on firms to operate and perform in new and creative ways. This book is a comprehensive look at the strategic planning process as a key tool in helping firms address and come to terms with important issues that affect their business. It's all about managing change. It helps firms allocate their scarce human and financial resources on the opportunities that offer the greatest chance for long-term success.

The Leader's Edge: 5 Skills of Breakthrough Thinking

Guy Hale

The Leader's Edge: 5 Skills of Breakthrough Thinking Guy Hale List Price: $24.95
By: McGraw-Hill
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Lucid, Concise, and Practical 5 out of 5 stars.
2 of 5 people found this review helpful.

My bookshelf is full of books that address "thinking skills."
I teach university courses aimed at sharpening such skills. And as an outplacement counselor, I also assess client skills for the job market. In what I have read and experienced, so far, Hale's book is best for clarity, conciseness, and practicality.
If I were invited to suggest an area for improvement of the text, I would suggest a little more elaboration in the area of
"Innovation Skills."

Editorial Review:

The men and women who will get ahead in the next decase won't necessarily be harder-working, more motivated, smarter, or even more experienced. Instead, they will think better. Learning how to think, especially in these rapidly changing times, will unlock doors that talent, motivation, and experience alone can't. The Leader's Edge provides the tools to master the ``art'' of thinking as well as the confidence to handle any business decision. Providing practical skills rather than philosophy along, The Leader's Edge instructs readers on the five skills needed to think more accurately: situation review; cause analysis; decision making; plan analysis; innovation.

Saying no (Let's talk about)

Joy Wilt Berry

Saying no (Let's talk about) Joy Wilt Berry By: Scholastic
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

When is it okay to say "no"? 5 out of 5 stars.
16 of 16 people found this review helpful.

This book is a great way to teach kids when it is appropriate to say "no" and when it is not. For instance, if your friend wants to trade dolls with you, and don't want to trade, it is okay to say "no." When someone tries to convince you to do something you know is wrong, is it okay to say "no." But it is not right to say "no" if it is a lie (e.g. "did you break this vase?") or when your mother asks you to do something that will prevent you from getting hurt or damaging property. It also teaches about saying "no" politely when you don't want to do something, such as play with a friend. We often think of "no" as a negetive word, but this book reminds us all - adults and kids alike - that sometimes saying "no" is the wise thing to do.

Editorial Review:

Examines, in simple text and illustrations, situations when saying no is an appropriate response and situations when it is the wrong thing to say.

Asking to win!: One hundred profound questions available to help you win twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week for the rest of your life

Bobb Biehl

Asking to win!: One hundred profound questions available to help you win twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week for the rest of your life Bobb Biehl By: Masterplanning Group International
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