Decision-Making Books - Page 6

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory (Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory)

James M. Joyce

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 4 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

NOT WHO IT SEEMS 3 out of 5 stars.
5 of 43 people found this review helpful.

When one hears the name Joyce, "James" comes second. Nearly any college-educated fellow knows who James Joyce is -- the guy who wrote ULYSSES, FINNEGANS WAKE, PORTRAIT, &c. However, what not everyone knows is that James Joyce middle initials are A. S. To wit, there is no "M." at all. To be excruciatingly plain, James M. Joyce, the undistinguished author of _The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory_ is not the same James Joyce who wrote ULYSSES. I must wonder why this imbecile did not change his name, en lugar de trying to follow so mind-boggling large a shadow.

Editorial Review:

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the nonspecialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a "representation theorem" that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. In providing the most complete and robust defense of causal decision theory the book will be of interest to a broad range of readers in philosophy, economics, psychology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence.

Thinking Strategically: Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement

Craig Loehle

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 5 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Interesting ideas on how we can be our own guru 5 out of 5 stars.
5 of 5 people found this review helpful.

Politicians have trusted advisers and strategists who guide them in their every move. There are, however, many professions that require innovative thinking and decision making, and whose practitioners have to be their own strategists. Of course, people in such occupations could do what most people do, which is to use a trusted colleague as a sounding board for their ideas. However, many times a colleague is not available, and even if one were, there is no guarantee that he or she will have the level of discernment needed for a particular problem. It is possible to circumvent the lack of a guru, a spin doctor or a discerning friend, by verifying our own ideas before implementing them. Loehle's book Thinking Strategically: Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement, teaches us how to condition our intellect to think ahead so that we can plan a strategy to attain that which is important to us. Naturally, this includes choosing the best path whilst avoiding pitfalls, side-tracking and even derailment from the path. For that, we must learn how to study the particular, while keeping an eye on the whole, and to keep in perspective several logical and causal connections simultaneously. Then, when we master how to think by ourselves, we must learn how to be our own sounding board, that is, how to check our results against all possible errors that can occur during the thinking process and compare them objectively against a known standard. This aspect of strategic thinking is referred to as reality check. The author distinguishes two types: internal and external. The former is important because many of the patterns we perceive are not real but artefacts of our imagination or, may have resulted from an array of potential errors of thinking such as faulty generalization, bad use of logic, incoherence and bad risk checking. The external reality check is like scientific hypothesis testing or the test drive of a new car, and it requires us to submit our result to an array of tests to discredit it, and finally to peer review. One does not need to be a book worm to fully appreciate this book but being reasonably well-read in scientific and technological matters will help to fully appreciate the examples taken from the great innovators. Thinking Strategically is a cornucopia of rich pickings of allegories, common sense and wisdom tempered by the amusing illustrations of Richard Loehle. I recommend this book for anyone challenged to provide novel ideas or solutions to problems still untackled by routine manuals. pires.obrien@netmatters.co.uk

Editorial Review:

Professionals today, whether scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, or managers, need to maximize their effectiveness. Real world problems are complex and must be tackled with adequate conceptual tools. Hard work and motivation are not enough. Professionals need to think strategically in order to choose the right problem to solve, to solve it in a cost-effective way, to use resources efficiently, and to be innovative and productive. Written in a concise, accessible style, Thinking Strategically goes beyond brainstorming motivational books to provide the power tools needed to dissect problems and to find innovative solutions. These tools are based on an understanding of the power of bottlenecks, paradox, scale and perspective constraints, and feedback as leverage points for getting a grip on the problem. The result is a practical book for managers and other professionals about the strategic use of effort that can lead to astonishing levels of productivity.

Decision Power: How to Make Successful Decisions With Confidence

Harvey Kaye

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Thorough. Helped me understanding my inner conflicts. 4 out of 5 stars.
4 of 5 people found this review helpful.

This book was suprisingly helpful, covering issues of knowing the difference between your "needs" and "wants," and becoming conscious of the tradeoffs required in accepting the best "whole package" decision that meets your needs.

Editorial Review:

Effective decision-making is the single most important factor in attaining personal goals and happiness. Yet making good decisions isn't an innate human capability. This book offers all the practical guidance anyone needs to develop his or her full decision-making potential. Features a "tool-box" of decision-making skills.

The Psychology of Risk

Glynis M. Breakwell

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Editorial Review:

Risk surrounds and envelopes us. Without understanding it, we risk everything and without capitalising on it, we gain nothing. This accessible new book from Glynis M. Breakwell comprehensively explores the psychology of risk, examining how individuals think, feel and act, as well as considering the institutional and societal assessments, rhetorics and reactions about risk. Featuring chapters on all the major issues in the psychology of risk including risk assessment, hazard perception, decision-making, risk and crisis management, risk and emotion, risk communication, safety cultures, the social amplification and social representation of risk and mechanisms for changing risk responses, Breakwell uses illustrations and examples to bring to life the significance of her research findings. She provides an innovative overview of current knowledge on the subject but also suggests that there are many fascinating questions still to be answered.

Conflict and Tradeoffs in Decision Making (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making)

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 3.0 of 5

not bad, not good 3 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

not too shabby. but this book focuses to a LARGE degree on managing risk, rather than the pragmatics of how people work through decision-making conflicts.

Editorial Review:

What makes some decisions easy and others difficult? Current research in judgment and decision making indicates that conflict plays a decisive role in decision making processes. The essays in this book address questions about the causes of conflict and its effects on decision making and emotions, particularly (but not only) the emotion of regret. Several chapters address the role of attribute tradeoffs, such as that between money and risk, in the measurement of values for policy purposes. The chapters provide overviews of several current research programs and present new data.

Conscious Choices: A Model for Self-Directed Learning

Elaine Gray

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Editorial Review:

Promoting self-directed learning by creating an attitude and emotional readiness to learn, this text shows users how to develop qualities of emotional intelligence, increase critical thinking skills, and integrate personal goals into their decision making process. It delivers powerful concepts designed to create the receptivity, focus, and integrity necessary to master life long learning. KEY TOPICS Specific chapter topics cover values and goals, choices, attention: comprehension and focus, energy: mental and physical well being, emotional intelligence: self mastery, integrity: motivation and accountability, and integration: time and receptivity. For college students and students of life.

Making Ethical Decisions

Michael S Josephson

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Best Little Book on Ethics 5 out of 5 stars.
2 of 2 people found this review helpful.

A wonderful way to begin a study of ethics. This author shares his wisdom freely and encourages the reader to examine one's own ethical principles and beliefs. This is an easy read with an opportunity to go deeper - This is an open invitation to make decisions based on no other criterian than "how can I improve the world". Character counts. I've read many books on ethics and this is one I'll never be without.

Editorial Review:

Rewritten and redesigned for 2002, this comprehensive primer examines the hows — and whys — of making choices that are ethical. With realistic examples and a step-by-step decision-making model, this easy-to-read booklet is ideal for the individual reader — or as a training resource for any organization that wishes to help its employees find the way through difficult issues to successful choices.

Good Intentions: The Nine Unconscious Mistakes of Nice People

Duke Robinson

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 14 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Being "nice" isn't always as good as it looks! 5 out of 5 stars.
10 of 10 people found this review helpful.

Always being "nice" looks so good from the outside, but oh, the pain that is there inside. Duke Robinson's touching book guides you through simple, yet challanging steps to relieve that pain forever.

My first intention was to read this book as a self-help guide in learnng how to deal with my mistakes. I found my "niceness" in many chapters and immediately began trying some of the suggested changes. They do work and I feel better!

Being a believer that continuing education is a lifelong process, I want to share this book with others. Using the author's study guide, I plan to introduce "Good Intentions" to an adult study group at my church.

Great 5 out of 5 stars.
4 of 5 people found this review helpful.

We do not have to expect
that this book can completely change our life,
but it will surely help !

Duke rocks 5 out of 5 stars.
3 of 3 people found this review helpful.

This is one Oprah should have picked up on -- solid and witty advice on how to stop making those same mistakes, and start getting a grip on your own life. I read it slowly, absorbing its wisdom in increments...I recommend it to anyone who has a berth on this crazy ship called Earth.

Editorial Review:

Identifies nine common mistakes of nice people, including taking on too much, telling little lies, giving advice, rescuing self-destructive friends, reasoning with irrational people, and suppressing anger."

Decisions involving uncertainty: An @Risk tutorial for the petroleum industry

James A Murtha

By: James A. Murtha Amazon Marketplace: 1 new & used starting at $24.95

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 1 Average rating: 2.0 of 5

Of Uncertain value? 2 out of 5 stars.
5 of 5 people found this review helpful.

This is essentially a a very expensive pamphlet with a copy ofthe @Risk software on trial. As one who bought the "book" because of its subject matter and its author I feel roundly cheated. The pamphlet itself has some introduction to the subject but essentially this is nothing more than an attempt to distribute some trial software at cost.

I suspect the audience for this pamphlet already know of @risk and its competitors. Equally they will probabaly have this or a competitor software already.

I do appreciate the quality of @Risk - but this seems a "cheap" way of earning some extra revenue without really extending the user base.

Editorial Review:

A great extension of Dr. Murtha's highly successful seminars on the use of @RISK in the petroleum industry. You start with 2 chapters to get up to speed on the philosophy of risk analysis and the requisite principles in probability, statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation. Following are the basic steps you’d take to actually build, run, and interpret results for a real risk analysis model in @RISK. To make it as hands-on as possible, Dr. Murtha includes lots of petroleum examples - an accompanying CD includes all these examples pre-built in Excel worksheets. Volumetric reserves, exponential decline, porosity and water saturation, waterflood prospect, and competitive bidding are some of the examples. This is a rare offering in that you'll learn about the concepts of risk analysis while also getting some very solid hands-on experience with risk analysis modelling in @RISK 4.0. A trial version of @RISK 4.0 is also included!

Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep it From Happeining to You

Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, Andrew Campbell

Amazon Price: $18.45 List Price: $27.95 Not yet published By: Harvard Business School Press

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Editorial Review:

Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight?

Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need.

Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.