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Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future

John Naisbitt

Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future John Naisbitt Amazon Price: $16.47
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 19 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Ghassan Qutob ( Jordan) : A macro forecast for the future 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 1 people found this review helpful.

I always wondered if there are certain rules used by those people we call "futuristics" when they give analysis of "Trends", this book has the answer.
John Naisbitt gave a set of 11 "Mindsets" for looking into world phenomenon in the first half of his book, very detailed, logical & easy to get.
But i don't underestimate the megatrends he addresses in the second half of his work.Those trends are impressivly mind openers : The visual trends of the culture, the China phenomena ... etc.
To conclude: the book is another Megatrend.. but combined with a good lesson of "How to be a futuristic viewer".

Editorial Review:

In his seminal works Megatrends and Megatrends 2000, John Naisbitt proved himself one of the most far-sighted and accurate observers of our fast-changing world.

Mind Set! goes beyond that—Mind Set! discloses the secret of forecasting. John Naisbitt gives away the keys to the kingdom, opening the door to the insights that let him understand today's world and see the opportunities of tomorrow. He selects his most effective tools, 11 Mindsets, and applies them by guiding the reader through the five forces that will dominate the next decades of the twenty-first century.

Illustrated by stories about Galileo and Einstein to today's icons and rebels in business, science, and sports, Mind Set! opens your eyes to see beyond media headlines, political slogans, and personal opinions to select and judge what will form the pictures of the future.

Public Enemies: America's Greatest Crime Wave and the Birth of the FBI, 1933-34

Public Enemies: America's Greatest Crime Wave and the Birth of the FBI, 1933-34 Amazon Price: $19.76
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 54 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

The astonishing true story of America's first and greatest "War on Crime."

In Public Enemies, Bryan Burrough strips away a thick layer of myths put out by J. Edgar Hoover's FBI to tell the full story of the most spectacular crime wave in American history, the two-year battle between the young Hoover and an assortment of criminals who became national icons: John Dillinger, Machine Gun Kelly, Bonnie and Clyde, Baby Face Nelson, Pretty Boy Floyd, and the Barkers.

In 1933, police jurisdictions ended at state lines, the FBI was in its infancy, and fast cars and machine guns were easily available. It was a great time to be a bank robber. On hand were a motley crew of criminal masterminds, sociopaths, romantics, and cretins.

Bryan Burrough has unearthed an extraordinary amount of new material on all the major figures involved -- revealing many fascinating interconnections in the vast underworld ecosystem that stretched from Texas up to Minnesota.

But the real-life connections were insignificant next to the sense of connectedness J. Edgar Hoover worked to create in the mind of the American public-using the "Great Crime Wave" to gain the position of untouchable power he would occupy for almost half a century.

Beating the Business Cycle

Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji

Beating the Business Cycle Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji Amazon Price: $16.47
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 63 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?

The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.

In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.

Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.

Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?

Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning

Henry Mintzberg

Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning Henry Mintzberg Amazon Price: $23.10
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 9 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

In this definitive and revealing history, Henry Mintzberg, the iconoclastic former president of the Strategic Management Society, unmasks the press that has mesmerized so many organizations since 1965: strategic planning. One of our most brilliant and original management thinkers, Mintzberg concludes that the term is an oxymoron -- that strategy cannot be planned because planning is about analysis and strategy is about synthesis. That is why, he asserts, the process has failed so often and so dramatically.

Mintzberg traces the origins and history of strategic planning through its prominence and subsequent fall. He argues that we must reconceive the process by which strategies are created -- by emphasizing informal learning and personal vision -- and the roles that can be played by planners. Mintzberg proposes new and unusual definitions of planning and strategy, and examines in novel and insightful ways the various models of strategic planning and the evidence of why they failed. Reviewing the so-called "pitfalls" of planning, he shows how the process itself can destroy commitment, narrow a company's vision, discourage change, and breed an atmosphere of politics. In a harsh critique of many sacred cows, he describes three basic fallacies of the process -- that discontinuities can be predicted, that strategists can be detached from the operations of the organization, and that the process of strategy-making itself can be formalized.

Mintzberg devotes a substantial section to the new role for planning, plans, and planners, not inside the strategy-making process, but in support of it, providing some of its inputs and sometimes programming its outputs as well as encouraging strategic thinking in general. This book is required reading for anyone in an organization who is influenced by the planning or the strategy-making processes.

A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World

Peter Tertzakian

A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World Peter Tertzakian Amazon Price: $20.44
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 35 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

A Reasonable Sense of Urgency 4 out of 5 stars.
9 of 9 people found this review helpful.

It feels appropriate to review this book as crude oil futures hit all-time contract highs... The 1980 inflation-adjusted highs for crude (roughly $100 per barrel in today's money) are just around the corner in geopolitical terms.

In the book's title, "A Thousand Barrels a Second" refers to the point at which world oil demand exceeds 86 million barrels per day. (86.4 to be exact--there are 86,400 seconds in one day). The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the 86 million threshold could be crossed this year.

The "Coming Oil Break Point" refers to the aftermath of crisis and inevitable forced change. Tertzakian explains:

"...the history of energy shows that a time of crisis is always followed by a defining break point, after which government policies, and social and technological forces, begin to rebalance the structure of the world's vast energy complex. Break points are crucial junctures marked by dramatic changes in the way energy is used."

During the break point and the rebalancing phase that follows (which can last for 10 to 20 years), nations struggle for answers, consumers suffer and complain, the economy adapts, and science surges with innovation and discovery. In the era that emerges, lifestyles change, businesses are born, and fortunes are made.

I read the entire book on one leg of a coast-to-coast plane trip, a feat made possible by the clarity and lucidity of Tertzakian's writing. He excels at laying out detailed concepts in ways that are easy for the reader to grasp and understand, and paints a convincing picture of the significant challenges we face.

Tertzakian firmly grounds his argument in history, explaining what he calls the "evolutionary energy cycle" through the lens of past transitions. At one point we journeyed to the ends of the earth for whale oil, just as we do for "rock oil" (the literal meaning of petroleum) today. In the switch from wood to coal, tallow to whale oil, whale oil to kerosene, and so on, predictable aspects of the evolutionary energy cycle begin to emerge.

In addition to outlining the situation we're in, Tertzakian gives a fascinating, though brief, history of the oil industry. He covers the rise of Rockefeller's Standard Oil, its eventual breakup, the curious origins of Saudi Aramco, the British Navy's fateful switch from coal to oil, energy's role in respect to railroads and WWII, and more.

In my opinion, Tertzakian can be classified as an Urgent Simonist.* The word "Urgent" is meant to distinguish from the "Pollyanna" Simonists--those who believe technology will magically solve our energy problems with no real pain or discomfort.

On the emotional subject of peak oil, there are two extremes of debate. At one end you have those who think civilization is doomed no matter what (the viewpoint of cheery websites like dieoff.org). At the other end, you have those who think peak oil will be shaken off like a mild head cold.

Tertzakian helps bridge the gap between these extremes by explaining that yes, the challenge is serious, and gut-wrenching times are ahead... but we will ultimately see our way through. He is "urgent" in pointing out that the sooner we act the better, and pulls no punches in terms of what's at stake.

Perhaps the real power of "A Thousand Barrels A Second" is in showing readers how to think about the big picture, orienting them to the mind-boggling mechanics of energy supply chains.

There are so many steps and processes involved in the discovery, extraction, and distribution of energy that supply chains generally evolve at a glacial pace. Major energy transitions are measured in decades, not years; the scale and scope of the task is breathtaking to behold. Without taking a closer look behind the scenes, it's hard to get an intuitive sense of the time frames and logistical complexities involved. Tertzakian helps readers do that.

In sum, if you truly want to understand the energy issues we face--or at least get a handle on the key elements--I strongly recommend this book. It could also make an excellent gift for those friends and colleagues locked in one of the "extreme" camps, i.e. "what me worry" vs. "we're all going to die." (The book might not change their mind, but it will certainly make them think.)

I too consider myself an Urgent Simonist--we'll make it through, but only with serious pain--and believe that Tertzakian succeeds in his goal of providing "a highly researched and balanced assessment of our energy situation."

*Julian Simon, an influential economist, wrote a book in 1981 called The Ultimate Resource, in which he argued that technology and human ingenuity would always ensure an abundance of raw materials. In 1980, he also made a famous wager that a basket of base metals would fall in price, rather than rise, over a significant period of time. He won the bet. Ever since, those who believe in the power of innovation to overcome doomsday scarcity predictions have been dubbed "Simonists."

Editorial Review:

How the world's dizzying consumption of oil is poised to forever change the world economies and businesses. This is an informed and compelling look at one of the most critical hot-button topics of the day, by a highly credentialed investment analyst and economist.

Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future

Joel Arthur Barker

Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future Joel Arthur Barker Amazon Price: $10.20
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 22 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Snake oil for corporate America 1 out of 5 stars.
1 of 6 people found this review helpful.

A useful tool to try and get people to accept ideas (usually bad ones). To shift your paradigm (knowledge filter) means to a) roll with the punches b) free yourself from independent thought or c) goose step...right...left...right....left... There are plenty of used copies! HR people love this approach because it gets the American worker to do HR's job for them, ie. brainwash herself/himself into accepting lousy ideas that will hurt the average American in the long run.

Editorial Review:

How would like to spot future trends before the competition?

We all know the rules for success in our business or professions, yet we also know that these rules--paradigms--can change at any time. What Joel Barker does in Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future is explain how to spot paradigm shifts, how they unfold, and how to profit from them. Through the power of this method--paradigm spotting--you can:

  • find the people in your organization most likely to spot a new trend
  • help your key people adept when a massive change is occurring
  • learn to effectively grapple with your "intractable problems" and improve your results incalculably.

In addition, Paradigms is full of concrete examples of paradigm shifts and predictions for the future, and contains a new introduction detailing recent developments and pointing out areas to watch tor paradigm shifts.

Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality

Terry Burnham

Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality Terry Burnham Amazon Price: $11.53
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 36 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

Everyone from journalists to market pros are turning to behavioral finance to explain, analyze, and predict market direction. In contrast to old-school assumptions of cool-headed rationality, the new behavioral school embraces hot-blooded human irrationality as a core feature of both individuals and financial markets. The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to scholars of this new scientific approach to irrationality. In Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, Terry Burnham, an economist who has a proven ability to translate complex topics into everyday language, reveals the biological causes of irrationality. The human brain contains ancient structures that exert powerful and often unconscious influences on behavior. This "lizard brain" may have helped our ancestors eat and reproduce, but it wreaks havoc with our finances. Going far beyond cataloguing our financial foibles, Dr. Burnham applies this novel approach to all of today's most important financial topics: the stock market, the economy, real estate, bonds, mortgages, inflation, and savings. This broad and scholarly investigation provides an in-depth look at why manias, panics, and crashes happen, and why people are built to want to buy at irrationally high prices and sell at irrationally low prices. Most importantly, by incorporating the new science of irrationality, readers can position themselves to profit from financial markets that often seem downright mean. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains skillfully identifies the craziness that is part of human nature, helps us see it in ourselves, and then shows us how to profit from a world that doesn't always make sense.

Marketing High Technology

William H. Davidow

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 22 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Marketing is civilized warfare. And as high-tech products become increasingly standardized -- practically identical, from the customer's point of view -- it is marketing that spells life or death for new devices or entire firms. In a book that is as fascinating as it is pragmatic, William H. Davidow, a legend in Silicon Valley, where he was described as "the driving force behind the micro processor explosion," tells how to fight the marketing battle in the intensely competitive world of high-tech companies -- and win.

Blunt, pithy, and knowledgeable, Davidow draws on his successful marketing experience at Intel Corporation to create a complete program for marketing victory. He drives home the basics, such as how to go head-on against the competition; how to "plan products, not devices"; how to give products a "soul"; and how to engineer promotions, market internationally, motivate salespeople, and rally distributors. Above all, he demonstrates the critical importance of servicing and supporting customers. Total customer satisfaction, Davidow makes clear, must be every high-tech marketer's ultimate goal.

The only comprehensive marketing strategy book by an insider, Marketing High Technology looks behind the scenes at industry-shaking clashes involving Apple and IBM, Visicorp and Lotus, Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor. He recounts his own involvement in Crush, Intel's innovative marketing offensive against Motorola, to demonstrate, step-by-step, how it became an industry prototype for a winning high-tech campaign.

Davidow clearly spells out 16 principles which increase the effectiveness of marketing programs. From examples as diverse as a Rolling Stones concert and a microprocessor chip, he defines a true "product." He analyzes and explains in new ways the strategic importance of distribution as it relates to market sector, pricing, and the pitfalls it entails. He challenges some traditional marketing theory and provides unique and important insights developed from over 20 years in the high-tech field. From an all-encompassing philosophy that great marketing is a crusade requiring total commitment, to a careful study of the cost of attacking a competitor, this book is an essential tool for survival in today's high-risk, fast- changing, and very lucrative high-tech arena.

Numbers Guide: The Essentials of Business Numeracy, Fifth Edition (The Economist Series)

Richard Stutely

Numbers Guide: The Essentials of Business Numeracy, Fifth Edition (The Economist Series) Richard Stutely Amazon Price: $19.77
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 4 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

From Great to Good 4 out of 5 stars.
24 of 25 people found this review helpful.

I have read cover-to-cover a previous edition of this book (when it was published by Wiley in 1998) and recently had an opportunity to carefully peruse this current edition (5th ed. by Bloomberg Press???). What I found is that this is a strange case of how a great book (the 1998 edition) turned into merely a good book (this 5th edition). Because of this regression toward the average, I deducted one star from my review (but still feel that it is good enough for 4 stars).

As you may have noticed, I really loved the older edition of The Economist Numbers Guide that I thankfully own. It is a great overview and introduction of mathematics as it relates to business. There are a lot of great things about that edition of this book. One of the things I admired about it was the range of topics covered, from interest rates and basic probability/statistics all the way up to Markov Chains, linear programming, and marginal analysis. It is hard to find the breadth of topics covered in that book elsewhere - whether all in one book or in any combination of books.

So I found it perplexing that this 5th edition dedacted some materials and topics covered in older editions. Gone are the interesting discussion of descriptive statistics for sets of data that do not easily conform to any of the standard probability distributions (e.g., where median is the best measure of the 'average' and substitutes must be used for the more common parameters such as standard deviation). I have a hard time finding anything coherent much less accessible on those topics elsewhere so it is a shame that they were left off of the 5th edition.

The only new material (not previously present) is a short blurb on public-key cryptography. While that topic is interesting to me and the limited discussion was illuminating and mathematically sound, it seemed a rather quixotic choice to put in when some interesting materials in previous editions were left off and new material that would have been more useful to the targeted audience have yet to be added.

What I mean by useful material that have yet to be added is that both the 1998 edition and this edition don't have some materials that I would think naturally ought to be added. E.g., the section on finance & investment mathematics is mostly devoted to various discussions on interest rate/time value of money & basic probability. I think adding material on CAPM (although CAPM Beta is defined in the book's very helpful glossary section), option/derivative pricing, financial portfolio optimization, and other topics in financial mathematics/engineering would make a great and natural addition to this book.

Some problems common to both the prior and current edition of this book are the occassional (relatively rare) typos. They are usually minor (although they are most annoyingly frequent in the section on time value of money / interest rates).

Another flaw in both the older and newer editions is that there are gaps in the expository material that don't make much sense. To be fair, this book is designed to be a brief intro/overview into a wide swathe of topics so it wouldn't be reasonable to expect that the author go into great detail on every topic. However, there are instances - e.g., the example on mixed strategies in game theory - where one or two additional sentences would help novices to understand (e.g., how did you get the the mixed strategy probabilities? author should have added a couple of more lines about how the system of equations are interrelated with one another when determining mixed strategies).

Having said all of that, let me reiterate that BOTH the old and the new edition of The Economist Numbers Guide is a wonderful resource for people interested in business mathematics. The sections on decision-making and forecasting are especially of value since they are so wonderfully explained here and a comparable set of explanations are hard to find elsewhere.

In future editions, I just hope that the author heeds my advice about bringing back some topics in older editions, correcting a few errors & lapses, and adding some material that would fit in with what has otherwise been an excellent series of books.

Editorial Review:

The Numbers Guide is very useful for everyone who wants to be competent and able to communicate effectively with numbers and is particularly invaluable for managers who have budgetary, planning, or forecasting responsibilities. There are chapters on key concepts including finance and investment, measures for interpretation and analysis, forecasting techniques, sampling and hypothesis testing, incorporating judgments into decision making, linear programming and networking.

Ringmaster!

Jerry Springer, Laura Morton

Ringmaster! Jerry Springer, Laura Morton List Price: $23.95
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 53 Average rating: 3.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

America's most watched and controversial talk show host takes you into the circus that is his life. A behind-the-scenes, uninhibited look at the craziest show on Earth. Who isn't watching "Jerry Springer"? The fastest rising show in the history of television (the first in ten years to overtake "Oprah" in the ratings), the fights, the fans and the flying chairs have become part of the cultural language of America. Controversial for its violence, voyeurism and vulgarity, it is these very elements that boost its continued success. There is no better moment for this book -- an uninhibited, uncensored, never-before-revealed look at what goes on behind the scenes at the circus maximus by the ringmaster himself. He will share stories from some of his favorite shows and most memorable guests, as well as the worst. The man who has sold one million copies of his "Too Hot For TV" video through direct response only, the man whose movie based on the show is due out for Christmas, for the very first time dares to remove the bleeps and bars that hide away the real action. Hilarious, outrageous, and entertaining, this unforgettable insider's look at the craziest show on Earth and its key players is bound for bestsellerdom.

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