Planning & Forecasting Books - Page 6

Solar Arcs: Astrology's Most Successful Predictive System

Noel Tyl

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 10 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Excellent book on predicting future circumstances 5 out of 5 stars.
10 of 10 people found this review helpful.

In this complex but extremely educational book, Tyl describes the Solar Arc theory amongst others to show you how to exactly progress your NATAL chart foward in order to see the new aspects formed. This book focuses little on basic planetary triggers, but leans heavily on the concept of midpoints (which are far more productive in Transits) I would say, that this book is not for the first-time astrologer; I would highly recommend "The New Way to Learn Astrology: Presenting the Noel Tyl Method" by Basil Fearrington. It is geared more like a school text book, with chapters and quizes at the end of each chapter. I own over 15 Astrology books, and I think Basil and Tyl have it down. Solar Arc theory is highly recommended, but make sure you have a basic knowledge of houses, signs, planets, and the combinations of. If you do, or at least have the concept, buy this book.

Editorial Review:

Solar Arcs is one of the simplest of astrological prediction systems. Noel Tyl presents the entire power potential of solar arcs with many case studies. The book is also filled with bonus material: tertiary progressions, rectification, ephemerides, and Tyl's analytical synthesis of every one of the 1,130 possible solar arc and solar arc midpoint pictures.

What Makes a Great Exhibition?

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Editorial Review:

For better or worse, museums are changing from forbidding bastions of rare art into audience-friendly institutions that often specialize in “blockbuster” exhibitions designed to draw crowds. But in the midst of this sea change, one largely unanswered question stands out: “What makes a great exhibition?” Some of the world’s leading curators and art historians try to answer this question here, as they examine the elements of a museum exhibition from every angle.

What Makes a Great Exhibition? investigates the challenges facing American and European contemporary art in particular, exploring such issues as group exhibitions, video and craft, and the ways that architecture influences the nature of the exhibitions under its roof. The distinguished contributors address diverse topics, including Studio Museum in Harlem director Thelma Golden’s examination of ethnically-focused exhibitions; and Robert Storr, director of the 2007 Venice Biennale and formerly of the Museum of Modern Art, on the meaning of “exhibition and “exhibitionmaker.”

A thought-provoking volume on the practice of curatorial work and the mission of modern museums, What Makes A Great Exhibition? will be indispensable reading for all art professionals and scholars working today.

(02/28/2007)

Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present

Bob Johansen

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 4 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

How to use future forecasting 5 out of 5 stars.
3 of 7 people found this review helpful.

This is a very readable book that demystifies "futurism" while simultaneously explaining how foresight work focused 10, 20, or even 50 years into the future can be indispensably helpful to organizations, whether profit-based or with other missions.

Inside the book jacket is an actual Map of the Future, which is explained in detail in the text.

If you're responsible for strategy or innovation, this is one of those few books that is undeniably worth the investment.


---
Full disclosure: I'm affiliated with Institute for the Future, and know Bob.

Editorial Review:

Nobody can predict the future, but you still have to make sense of it to be successful. Leaders are facing a world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity--a world laced with dilemmas. "Get There Early" shows how to sense the future to provoke new ways of understanding the present. Institute for the Future's Distinguished Fellow Bob Johansen uses 35 years of 10-year forecasting to unpack complex dilemmas and help leaders seed innovation and strategy. "Get There Early" helps leaders resolve the constant tension between judging too soon (the classic mistake of the problem solver) and deciding too late (the classic mistake of the academic).

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025

Royal Dutch

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 2 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Essential reading about the forces shaping the world 5 out of 5 stars.
9 of 9 people found this review helpful.

The Shell Global Scenarios is an outstanding example of the craft of scenario design as well as a creative and insightful look at the forces shaping the world. The text is well written. The graphics are memorable and thought provoking. The commentaries by leading thinkers from various fields add depth. Scenario design can take many forms and be adapted for many purposes. The Shell approach is arguably the best for understanding and speculating about issues that cut across multiple socio-economic, technical, and political dimensions. Modern scenario design began with Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener's "The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation"(MacMillan, 1967). While we can be entertained by the misdirection of many of their speculative conclusions, their framework set the stage for much of the scenario work that has followed. My only regret about the excellent Shell effort is that Pierre Wack is given credit for coining the term "scenario." While Wack is a giant in this field, the credit for introducing "scenario" in the modern use of the term should go to Kahn and Wiener.

Editorial Review:

For over 30 years, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group has used these scenarios to identify business risks and opportunities in ways forecasts cannot. Now for the first time these scenerios are available to the public. This book portrays three plausible futures with contrasting economic, political, and regulatory features and distinct implications for the energy system.

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership)

Max H. Bazerman, Michael D. Watkins

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 7 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Predictably bad 2 out of 5 stars.
11 of 14 people found this review helpful.

A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation security failures leading to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and auditor independence concerns leading to the collapse of Enron and Arthur Anderson. Several other examples are discussed in less depth throughout the text, however many of these are not actually predictable surprises under the definition provided. For example, global warming is discussed a number of times; however global warming has been in public discussion since the 1930s, and today a substantial majority of people believe not only the concept of global warming but that current warming is man-made. By 2050, this subject will have been under study for 120 years and popular consensus will have been achieved for 50-60 years. This is certainly predictable, but hardly a surprise. The United States' looming crisis in entitlement spending also falls in this category.

Flaws exist in other anecdotal support as well. For example, Bazerman and Watkins cite aviation security failures as an occasion when overly discounting the future lead to a predictable surprise. Quick calculation based on figures provided in the book show that, using equal discount rates for the expected future cost of security and the future cost of disaster, even with a disaster probability as high as 10% for any given year, the airlines would be ahead on a cost basis. The total destruction of both World Trade Center towers and the massive ensuing death toll was not reasonably foreseeable by the airline industry; based on the typical passenger plan carrying 78 people, this was the equivalent of an absurd 41 simultaneous aircraft disasters! Given the cost of implementation and the low probability of such a large disaster, even at a full cost of nearly $50 billion, the airlines' decision to oppose security measures on a cost basis was reasonable. The full scope of this surprise was unlikely enough that it should not be termed "predictable."

Despite some good analysis of reasons predictable surprises occur and ways to avoid them, this book is critically weakened by its lack of evidence. Bazerman and Watkins try to make it stand largely on just the aviation security and auditor independence failures; however these are insufficient evidence for their broad analysis and conclusions, particularly given the weakness of those arguments provided. This book would be substantially more persuasive with more anecdotal support.

Editorial Review:

Even the best-run companies can get blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures.

In Predictable Surprises, Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins show you how to minimize your risk by understanding and lowering the psychological, organizational, and political barriers preventing you from foreseeing calamity.

They then describe the powerful tools--including incentives and formal coalitions--that business leaders can use to ferret out and fend off threats invisible to insiders.

Failure see what's coming exposes your company to predictable surprises. Given the stakes involved, this book should count among every business leader's most trusted resources.

Marketing Imagination, New, Expanded Edition

Theodore M. Levitt

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 12 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Outdated, lacks substance, dwells on marketing basics 2 out of 5 stars.
8 of 15 people found this review helpful.

I bought this book based one some of the reviews on this site. Unfortunately, this time they failed me. The book is outdated (as it was published 20 years ago) and lacks substance. If you have little or no knowledge of marketing, this might be a decent intro for you. It is relatively easy to read and dwells on few main concepts. However, if you have taken a marketing course in college or have read much on marketing, you will likely find this book dull and uninformative, as I did. Many of the big revelations in the book seem to me to be common sense. Maybe 20 years ago it was revolutionary, but somehow I doubt it. Also, some of the arguments he makes early in the book have been proven wrong by history...All in all, I would probably avoid this book. I was hoping to get some new insights, but this book sure didn't help. If you must buy it, buy a used copy as it certainly isn't worth [the money].

Editorial Review:

Since its publication in 1983, The Marketing Imagination has been widely praised as the classic, all-inclusive "Levitt on Marketing." Now Theodore Levitt -- renowned as the Harvard Business School's "guru of marketing" -- has newly expanded his original work to recap the developing globalization debate and to respond to his critics. He has also added his famed McKinsey Award-winning essay "Marketing Myopia," and included detailed accounts of how to maximize the product life cycle and achieve the delicate balance between innovation and imitation. As before, this new edition of The Marketing Imagination shows Levitt at his best -- sharp, knowledgeable, erudite, and, yes, as imaginative as ever.

Modern Competitive Analysis

Sharon M. Oster

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 3 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

Why do some companies thrive while others in the same industry languish? How can a struggling firm achieve higher annual earnings? What allows new corporations to become successful in highly competitive industries? In this book, now updated and expanded, Sharon Oster shows that combining a sound understanding of economic and managerial principles can make a striking difference in the quality of the strategic planning of an organization and provide guidelines for effective corporate strategies.
The third edition of Modern Competitive Analysis includes new material on game theory, added value analysis, and strategic intent. Examples are drawn from modern network industries and more attention is paid to newly deregulated markets. Unusually broad in scope, with many examples from large and small companies, service firms, manufacturers, foreign and American organizations, as well as non-profit corporations, the book emphasizes an economic approach to strategic planning, using the most recent theories to illuminate situations faced by businesses today. Covering new and important areas in economics not treated in other management and strategic planning books, and couched in clear terms that make these concepts especially accessible, Modern Competitive Analysis is a fundamental resource to the managers of today and tomorrow.

The Art of Predictive Astrology: Forecasting Your Life Events

Carol Rushman

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 13 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

An Inaccurate Mess 1 out of 5 stars.
8 of 9 people found this review helpful.

I have been studying astrology for twenty years and practicing it for a few. I bought this book based on the glowing recommendations here on Amazon. I wish I had not.

The premise of the book is sound. It is that, unless something is promised in the natal chart, then it will not manifest in the life of a client. But the author almost immediately contradicts herself. On page 42 she says: "We are not stuck with the natal promise of our chart. There is always the potential to outgrow the more difficult aspects." WHAT? Does the natal promise matter or does it not? Please make up your mind!

From there it just gets worse and worse. The chapter called "The Natal Promise" is laughable and exemplary of the rest of this book. The author reduces everything to childish, ridiculous generalizations. For example, the entire section on "Success" is about the Nodes. Apparently, at least if you follow her advice, you have no chance of success unless your North Node is in an angular house (1, 4, 7 or 10). In the section "Violence/Rape," all she discusses are hard aspects between the Moon and Pluto. Try telling my friend who was savagely raped and beaten that she must have imagined it happening to her since she has no aspect in her chart between the Moon and Pluto.

Not only is this book shoddily written and edited, as another reviewer mentioned, but there are some GLARING errors. In the section on "Vocation," page 68, she claims that "Jackie Kennedy had her tenth-house Neptune in Scorpio, and she was a book editor." Well, Neptune did not even enter Scorpio until 1956 so unless Jackie O. was about seven years old when JFK was shot, then this is completely impossible.

Finally, a large bulk of this book, maybe a third of it, is devoted to childish, cookbook interpretations which are vastly oversimplified. But my biggest complaint comes with the author's system of making predictions itself. It ultimately relies on eclipses, progressed house cusps and the position of the progressed Moon in order to pinpoint dates and times of events. This, in my experience as an astrologer, simply doesn't work. And as someone else noted, she makes no mention of Solar Arc Directions whatsoever.

The author's rambling narrative and anecdotes occasionally bring up an interesting observation here and there. But based on all of her other glaring errors and omissions, it makes one wonder if her observations are even worth considering. Ironically, she even promotes in the introduction to the book that astrologers develop a "personal method" in making predictions (in other words, she is suggesting that you may not want to use her method). Honestly, I'm amazed that her method has worked for her, but if you are expecting it to work for you, then you are likely in for a big surprise.

This book was a huge waste of my time and I wish that I had not purchased it.

Editorial Review:

This book clearly lays out a step-by-step system that astrologers can use to forecast significant events including love and financial success. Readers will be able to predict cycles and trends for the next several years, and give their clients important dates for the coming year. The emphasis is on progressions, eclipses, and lunations as important predictive tools.

The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business

Rolf Jensen

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Total reviews: 14 Average rating: 3.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

"The Dream Society . . . provides dramatic insights into how marketing will operate in the 21st century."­­Atlanta Business Chronicle

A fascinating look into the future of business, as featured in Fast Company

The future is uncertain­­the world is constantly changing. While anything can happen, some things are far more likely than others. Rolf Jensen, internationally renowned futurist, provides readers with a tangible look at what the future will be like over the next 25 years.

By identifying what lies ahead, Jensen gives people the knowledge they need to make informed decisions and strategically align themselves to capitalize on the unknown future, a future Jensen calls "the Dream Society." This dream society is characterized by the commercialization of emotions.

In this provocative exploration, Jensen says that it will no longer be enough to produce a useful product. He shows that, for a product to be successful, its primary purpose will be the ability to fulfill an emotional need.

Those who understand the workings of this dream society will be the ones who create the new products, new markets, and new businesses that dominate the world of tomorrow.

Elements of Forecasting (with InfoTrac 1-Semester, Economic Applications Online Product, Data Sets Printed Access Card)

Francis X. Diebold

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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 6 Average rating: 3.0 of 5

an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book 1 out of 5 stars.
27 of 30 people found this review helpful.

There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.

In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!

Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.

Editorial Review:

ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.