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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb Amazon Price: $17.79
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By: Random House
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 317 Average rating: 3.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.


Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson



Nursing Diagnosis Handbook: An Evidence-Based Guide to Planning Care (Nursing Diagnosis Handbook)

Betty J. Ackley, Gail B. Ladwig

Nursing Diagnosis Handbook: An Evidence-Based Guide to Planning Care (Nursing Diagnosis Handbook) Betty J. Ackley, Gail B. Ladwig Amazon Price: $40.46
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By: Mosby
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Subjects -> Medicine -> General
Subjects -> Medicine -> Nursing -> Assessment & Diagnosis
Subjects -> Medicine -> Nursing -> General

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 11 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

This innovative resource teaches you the critical thinking and assessment skills you need to build customized care plans based on each patient's unique needs. Its step-by-step approach guides you through the process, helping you formulate a nursing diagnosis based on known information and assessment findings; identify the appropriate nursing diagnosis; and create a care plan that includes desired outcomes, interventions, and evidence-based rationales. Nursing Diagnosis Handbook is an essential care planning resource you will turn to again and again throughout your nursing education and career.

  • Provides care plans for every NANDA-I approved nursing diagnosis.
  • Includes examples of and suggested NIC and NOC interventions and outcomes for each care plan.
  • A convenient A-to-Z organization in Sections I and II helps you quickly locate key information.
  • Evidence-based practice information is incorporated throughout.
  • Includes complete coverage of pediatric, geriatric, and multicultural considerations, as well as home care and client/family teaching guidelines for each condition.
  • A Care Plan Constructor on the Evolve website helps you create customized plans of care.


  • Features the most up-to-date 2007-2008 NANDA-I approved nursing diagnoses, including approximately 15 new, 20 revised, and 5 replacement diagnoses.
  • Provides a more detailed explanation of NIC and NOC taxonomies and their use in care planning.
  • Explanations of assessment versus action interventions help guide you to the correct choice of intervention.
  • Covers important information on concept mapping.
  • Patient/Family Teaching sections offer expanded wellness and health promotion information.
  • Clustered wellness nursing diagnoses are quick and easy to locate.
  • Includes the latest evidence-based nursing rationales.

Canon EOS 40D Guide to Digital Photography

David D. Busch

Canon EOS 40D Guide to Digital Photography David D. Busch Amazon Price: $19.79
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By: Course Technology PTR
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Digital Photography & Video -> Digital Photography
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Digital Photography & Video -> Camera Guides
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> General

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 57 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

As the new owner of Canon's most advanced intermediate digital SLR, you want to get started taking professional-looking photographs using all of the exciting features at your fingertips. "Canon EOS 40D Guide to Digital SLR Photography" is a concise introduction and guide to your camera's essential controls and functions, such as Live View, built-in dust reduction, and the blistering 6.5-frames-per-second continuous shooting mode that is an action photographer’s dream. The book provides detailed instructions showing you how, when, and why to make optimized settings with the Canon EOS 40D’s enhanced menus, which include a half-dozen versatile new custom functions. You'll learn about the camera's improved automatic focus, flash synchronization tricks, how to choose lenses that will provide the perspective and effects you want, and which exposure modes are ideal for each picture-taking opportunity. Packed with full-color images and examples that illustrate the recommended techniques and settings for your Canon EOS 40D, this book helps photographers of any skill level begin maximizing their equipment as soon as you open the cover!

The Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2 Book: The Complete Guide for Photographers

Martin Evening

The Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2 Book: The Complete Guide for Photographers Martin Evening Amazon Price: $31.49
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By: Adobe Press

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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Digital Photography & Video -> Adobe Photoshop
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Digital Photography & Video -> Digital Photography
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Web Development -> Web Design -> Web Graphics

Editorial Review:

While Adobe Photoshop has long been their choice for editing digital photographs, many photographers want a more focused tool. That’s where Adobe Photoshop Lightroom comes in. Designed from the ground up with digital photographers in mind, Photoshop Lightroom offers powerful editing features in a streamlined interface that lets photographers import, sort, and organize images. This completely updated and expanded bestseller, The Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2 Book, was also written with photographers in mind. Author Martin Evening describes features in Photoshop Lightroom 2 in detail from a photographer’s perspective. As an established commercial and fashion photographer, Martin knows first-hand what photographers need for an efficient workflow. He has also been working with Lightroom from the beginning, monitoring the product’s development and providing feedback on the public beta. As a result, Martin knows the software inside and out, from image selection to image editing to image management. In this book you’ll learn how to:

• Work efficiently with images shot in the raw or JPEG format
• Import photographs with ease and sort them according to your workflow
• Create and manage a personal image library
• Apply tonal adjustments to multiple images quickly
• Integrate Photoshop Lightroom with Adobe Photoshop
• Export images for print or Web as digital contact sheets or personal portfolios


Web Analytics: An Hour a Day

Avinash Kaushik

Web Analytics: An Hour a Day Avinash Kaushik Amazon Price: $19.79
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By: Sybex
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Business & Culture -> Web Marketing
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Databases -> Data Mining
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Web Development -> Website Architecture & Usability

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 57 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

Not analytics ... more data collection 2 out of 5 stars.
6 of 8 people found this review helpful.

If you buy 'Web Analytics ...' looking for some guidance, or even a few ideas, as to analysis of your internet marketing/sales endeavors, you will be disappointed. This book is about data collection ... nothing more.

To Avinash Kaushik's credit he appears thorough. I did appreciate his flagging the limitations of data collected by the various methods. On the downside the book is repetitive and could have been better ordered. The '... Hour a Day' is appropriate, as that is about all a reader can risk in one sitting. The text makes an arduous read. If better structured, this book could have been half its length.

If I learned one thing, it is this. I'll architect my approach to web analysis, define the data I need, and then recruit an IT type to build the process to collect the data. Having read the book, I now know what data there can be. For this I'm grateful to the author.

Editorial Review:

Written by an in-the-trenches practitioner, this step-by-step guide shows you how to implement a successful Web analytics strategy. Web analytics expert Avinash Kaushik, in his thought-provoking style, debunks leading myths and leads you on a path to gaining actionable insights from your analytics efforts. Discover how to move beyond clickstream analysis, why qualitative data should be your focus, and more insights and techniques that will help you develop a customer-centric mindset without sacrificing your company’s bottom line.

Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

Head First Design Patterns (Head First)

Elisabeth Freeman, Eric Freeman, Bert Bates, Kathy Sierra

Head First Design Patterns (Head First) Elisabeth Freeman, Eric Freeman, Bert Bates, Kathy Sierra Amazon Price: $29.67
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By: O'Reilly Media, Inc.
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Java -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Software Design, Testing & Engineering -> Object-Oriented Design
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Software Design, Testing & Engineering -> Software Development

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 242 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

You're not alone.

At any given moment, somewhere in the world someone struggles with the same software design problems you have. You know you don't want to reinvent the wheel (or worse, a flat tire), so you look to Design Patterns--the lessons learned by those who've faced the same problems. With Design Patterns, you get to take advantage of the best practices and experience of others, so that you can spend your time on...something else. Something more challenging. Something more complex. Something more fun.

You want to learn about the patterns that matter--why to use them, when to use them, how to use them (and when NOT to use them). But you don't just want to see how patterns look in a book, you want to know how they look "in the wild". In their native environment. In other words, in real world applications. You also want to learn how patterns are used in the Java API, and how to exploit Java's built-in pattern support in your own code.

You want to learn the real OO design principles and why everything your boss told you about inheritance might be wrong (and what to do instead). You want to learn how those principles will help the next time you're up a creek without a design pattern.

Most importantly, you want to learn the "secret language" of Design Patterns so that you can hold your own with your co-worker (and impress cocktail party guests) when he casually mentions his stunningly clever use of Command, Facade, Proxy, and Factory in between sips of a martini. You'll easily counter with your deep understanding of why Singleton isn't as simple as it sounds, how the Factory is so often misunderstood, or on the real relationship between Decorator, Facade and Adapter.

With Head First Design Patterns, you'll avoid the embarrassment of thinking Decorator is something from the "Trading Spaces" show. Best of all, in a way that won't put you to sleep! We think your time is too important (and too short) to spend it struggling with academic texts.

If you've read a Head First book, you know what to expect--a visually rich format designed for the way your brain works. Using the latest research in neurobiology, cognitive science, and learning theory, Head First Design Patterns will load patterns into your brain in a way that sticks. In a way that lets you put them to work immediately. In a way that makes you better at solving software design problems, and better at speaking the language of patterns with others on your team.

Code Complete: A Practical Handbook of Software Construction

Steve McConnell

Code Complete: A Practical Handbook of Software Construction Steve McConnell Amazon Price: $31.49
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By: Microsoft Press
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Software Design, Testing & Engineering -> Software Development
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Languages & Tools -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Project Management -> General

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 95 Average rating: 5.0 of 5

A classic book 4 out of 5 stars.
1 of 5 people found this review helpful.

for all programmers. Shall I say Application Developers? Software Engineers? Whatever the title is, programming jobs are alive and well! This book provides a solid foundation. It is too bad very few American students are interested in this profession.

The average students are all studying business marketing. The good students are studying finance.

At Harvard University, they do not teach Accounting. The best ones, study Economics. There are only 21 students studying Computer Science at Harvard. Yet, parents are paying $220,000 to Harvard and other Ivy League. Truly amazing!

Is there anyway we can change this trend?

Code Complete2 is a must-read for a programmer 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

If you're an experienced software developer or a newbee in the world of commercial computer programming this book will give a good kick in the right direction. Steve McConnel will keep you hooked by mixing the right guiding concepts with real-life knowledge and examples.

Editorial Review:

Take a strategic approach to software constructionand produce superior productswith this fully updated edition of Steve McConnells critically praised and award-winning guide to software development best practices.

MCITP Self-Paced Training Kit (Exams 70-640, 70-642, 70-643, 70-647): Windows Server® 2008 Enterprise Administrator Core Requirements

Dan Holme, Nelson Ruest, Danielle Ruest, Tony Northrup, J. C. Mackin

MCITP Self-Paced Training Kit (Exams 70-640, 70-642, 70-643, 70-647): Windows Server® 2008 Enterprise Administrator Core Requirements Dan Holme, Nelson Ruest, Danielle Ruest, Tony Northrup, J. C. Mackin Amazon Price: $144.89
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By: Microsoft Press
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Certification Central -> Publisher -> Microsoft Press
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Certification Central -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Networking -> Data in the Enterprise -> Client-Server Systems

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 3 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Your all-in-one kit for the skills measured by the core exams for Microsoft Certified IT Professional: Enterprise Administrator certification and on the job. Covering Exams 70-640, 70-642, 70-643, and 70-647, these four official Microsoft® study guides provide in-depth exam prep plus practice tests to help maximize your performance.

This kit comes packed with the tools and features that exam candidates want most including self-paced training based on final exam content; rigorous, objective-by-objective review; exam tips from expert, exam-certified authors; and customizable testing options. It also provides labs and exercises for skills and expertise you can apply to the job.

Focusing on Windows Server 2008 enterprise administration, topics include configuring, managing, and supporting user accounts, computer accounts, groups, Domain Name System (DNS) zones and client settings, group policy objects, Active Directory Lightweight Directory Service, and Active Directory Rights Management Service; configuring remote access, Network Access Protection, Network Authentication, IPv4 and IPv6 addressing, and DNS Replication; working with Terminal Services, Web services infrastructure and security, Media Server, Windows SharePoint® Services server options, File Server, Print Services, network maintenance, and Simple Network Management Protocol; planning networks and application services; designing core identity and access management components; implementing PKI; and designing virtualization strategy.

You ll work at your own pace through the lessons and hands-on exercises. Then assess yourself by using more than 1200 practice and review questions on the CD, which features multiple, customizable testing options. Choose timed or untimed testing mode, generate random tests, or focus on discrete objectives or chapters. You get detailed explanations for right and wrong answers including pointers back to the book for further study. You also get an evaluation version of Windows Server 2008 Enterprise Edition and an exam discount voucher making this kit an exceptional value and a great career investment.

Key Book Benefits

 Excellent value: Four official Microsoft study guides covering the core requirements for MCITP: Enterprise Administrator certification all in one box  In-depth coverage of exam objectives and sub-objectives plus instructive case studies and troubleshooting scenarios to enhance your performance on the job  1200+ practice and review questions  Test engine that enables customized testing, pre-assessment and post-assessment, and automated scoring and feedback  Handy exam-mapping grid  Evaluation version of Windows Server 2008 Enterprise Edition  15 percent exam discount voucher from Microsoft (limited-time offer)  All four study guides in searchable eBook format

The PMP Exam: How to Pass On Your First Try (Test Prep series)

PMP, Andy Crowe

The PMP Exam: How to Pass On Your First Try (Test Prep series) PMP, Andy Crowe Amazon Price: $50.37
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Project Management -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Project Management -> PMP Exam
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Computer Science -> Software Engineering -> Information Systems

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 178 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Great Material 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

I aced the PMP first time using this material. Most of the other materials avilable try to be too elaborate! The tests are also similar to what u can expect on the exam!
U get free online lessons and tests with this book! Great value for money!
The author also answers e-mails personally re the book or enquiries!

Get the PMBOK Guide and this Book 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

I passed the PMP on my first try today. I bought Andy's book (The PMP Exam - How to Pass on Your First Try), the PMBOK Guide, and Rita Mulcahy's PMP Examp Prep. I studied in the order of PMP Guide first, Andy's book second, and then Rita's third. Although Rita's book gave a few different perspectives, it wasn't really necessary to buy it. You can pass the PMP with the PMP Guide and Andy's book. It's a wonderful resource. Make flash cards, they work great!

Editorial Review:

This self-study guide for the Project Management Professional (PMP) certification exam from the Project Management Institute contains everything project managers need to pass the PMP Exam, including 44 processes, and 592 inputs, tools, and outputs. Exam topics are covered and insider secrets, complete explanations of all PMP subjects, test tricks and tips, hundreds of highly realistic sample questions, and exercises designed to strengthen understanding of PMP concepts and prepare managers for exam success on the first attempt are provided.

Programming Collective Intelligence: Building Smart Web 2.0 Applications

Toby Segaran

Programming Collective Intelligence: Building Smart Web 2.0 Applications Toby Segaran Amazon Price: $26.39
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By: O'Reilly Media, Inc.
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Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Algorithms -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> General
Subjects -> Computers & Internet -> Programming -> Languages & Tools -> General

Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 33 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Want to tap the power behind search rankings, product recommendations, social bookmarking, and online matchmaking? This fascinating book demonstrates how you can build Web 2.0 applications to mine the enormous amount of data created by people on the Internet. With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting datasets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you've found it. Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general -- all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application. This book explains: Collaborative filtering techniques that enable online retailers to recommend products or media Methods of clustering to detect groups of similar items in a large dataset Search engine features -- crawlers, indexers, query engines, and the PageRank algorithm Optimization algorithms that search millions of possible solutions to a problem and choose the best one Bayesian filtering, used in spam filters for classifying documents based on word types and other features Using decision trees not only to make predictions, but to model the way decisions are made Predicting numerical values rather than classifications to build price models Support vector machines to match people in online dating sites Non-negative matrix factorization to find the independent features in adataset Evolving intelligence for problem solving -- how a computer develops its skill by improving its own code the more it plays a game Each chapter includes exercises for extending the algorithms to make them more powerful. Go beyond simple database-backed applications and put the wealth of Internet data to work for you. "Bravo! I cannot think of a better way for a developer to first learn these algorithms and methods, nor can I think of a better way for me (an old AI dog) to reinvigorate my knowledge of the details." -- Dan Russell, Google "Toby's book does a great job of breaking down the complex subject matter of machine-learning algorithms into practical, easy-to-understand examples that can be directly applied to analysis of social interaction across the Web today. If I had this book two years ago, it would have saved precious time going down some fruitless paths." -- Tim Wolters, CTO, Collective Intellect

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