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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb Amazon Price: $26.39
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 379 Average rating: 3.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.


Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson



The Five Dysfunctions of a Team

The Five Dysfunctions of a Team Amazon Price: $19.77
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By: Random House Audio
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 232 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Once again using an astutely written fictional tale to unambiguously but painlessly deliver some hard truths about critical business procedures, Patrick Lencioni targets group behavior in the final entry of his trilogy of corporate fables. And like those preceding it, The Five Dysfunctions of a Team is an entertaining, quick read filled with useful information that will prove easy to digest and implement. This time, Lencioni weaves his lessons around the story of a troubled Silicon Valley firm and its unexpected choice for a new CEO: an old-school manager who had retired from a traditional manufacturing company two years earlier at age 55. Showing exactly how existing personnel failed to function as a unit, and precisely how the new boss worked to reestablish that essential conduct, the book's first part colorfully illustrates the ways that teamwork can elude even the most dedicated individuals--and be restored by an insightful leader. A second part offers details on Lencioni's "five dysfunctions" (absence of trust, fear of conflict, lack of commitment, avoidance of accountability, and inattention to results), along with a questionnaire for readers to use in evaluating their own teams and specifics to help them understand and overcome these common shortcomings. Like the author's previous books, The Five Temptations of a CEO and Obsessions of an Extraordinary Executive, this is highly recommended. --Howard Rothman

The Power of Positive Thinking: A Practical Guide to Mastering The problems Of Everyday Living (4 CD Set)

The Power of Positive Thinking: A Practical Guide to Mastering The problems Of Everyday Living (4 CD Set) Amazon Price: $21.30
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 176 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Just as promised 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

I bought this book years ago, and just recently my life changed enough that I needed to read it again. I have no idea where that original book is, so I bought it again. This book is timeless in it's knowledge and information. There are things that we never know exist until our eyes are open. It's simply amazing how the laws of the universe are fact, and how they go on whether or not we believe them, understand them, or even know about them. This is one of many books everyone should have in their library, next to other books that help us understand and expand our knowledge. This is a treasure, and I am very thankful it is still in print. I will hold onto this one!

Editorial Review:

Translated into fifteen languages with more than 7 million copies sold, The Power of Positive Thinking is unparalleled in its extraordinary capacity for restoring the faltering faith of millions. In this insightful program, Dr. Peale offers the essence of his profound method for mastering the problems of everyday living. You will learn:

  • How to eliminate that most devastating handicap -- self doubt
  • How to free yourself from worry, stress and resentment
  • How to climb above problems to visualize solutions and then attain them
  • Simple prayerful exercises that you can do everyday, throughout the day, to reinforce your new-found habit of happiness

Eliminating all the negative thoughts that prevent you from achieving happiness and success, The Power of Positive Thinking is an inspiring program that will help you create a positive change in your life.

Goals! How to Get Everything You Want Faster Than You Ever Thought Possible

Goals! How to Get Everything You Want Faster Than You Ever Thought Possible Amazon Price: $16.47
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 61 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Change your life, today! 5 out of 5 stars.
1 of 1 people found this review helpful.

I have never read Brian Tracy before. This was recommended by a friend and I picked it up first from him and read. Then I realised that this is a classic. I have a Book, a *pdf and the audio book version of this book.

A classic step-by-step book on just to start chganging pour own perspectives. Some of them are unimaginable, but they work. - Writing my Own Obituary, for e.g. When I first read that, I said.. "whoa.. what the hell is this". As I read more and started putting it into practice, I could see the essence of the chapters.

This helps one take control of their lives. achieve what they want to achieve and not really be a victim of 'situations'. I believe in the subconscious effects that a written goal provides! The book help build some clarity into thinking and how-to tackle that clarity to become something.

If yoiu do not read this, you are missing SOMETHING!

Editorial Review:

Drawing on two decades of research into the dynamics of personal achievement, Brian Tracy has developed his own inspiring, goal-oriented system for success. People in every walk of life can follow it to take charge of their futures and move swiftly in the direction they want to go. Drawing on his experience as a professional speaker, Tracy puts the listener in a positive, can-do frame of mind. He explains why goals are necessary for future happiness, outlines ways to set goals that reflect one's true self, gives tips on overcoming obstacles, and tells how to persist until objectives are fully met. Other topics include clarifying values, associating with the best people to further personal aims, making a plan of action, visualizing, remaining flexible, and discovering inner creativity.

The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book: Everything You Need to Know to Put Your EQ to Work

Travis Bradberry, Jean Greaves

The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book: Everything You Need to Know to Put Your EQ to Work Travis Bradberry, Jean Greaves Amazon Price: $13.57
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By: Macmillan Audio
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 34 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

First popularized by Daniel Goleman in his book Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More Than IQ, the concept of emotional intelligence is now widely accepted, not only within the psychological arena, but also, ever-increasingly, within the business world. In The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book, authors Bradberry and Greaves outline techniques anyone can use to achieve goals in an easier and more fulfilling way, improve relationships, enhance health, and become more accomplished in the work force. Starting with a discussion on what emotional intelligence (EQ, for short) is and how it impacts our lives, Bardberry and Greaves then provide readers with instructions for determining their own EQ via the book’s companion Web site (the passcode for doing so can be found on the inside of the book’s dust jacket). They also provide a variety of ways readers can increase their EQ and put it to use in their personal and professional lives. Based on research with more than 500,000 people, The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book is exactly that, a quick and easy-to-read resource that empowers readers to master their EQ and more effectively incorporate it into all aspects of their daily lives. Larry Trivieri Jr.

Now, Discover Your Strengths

Donald O. Clifton

Now, Discover Your Strengths Donald O. Clifton Amazon Price: $16.50
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 341 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

Editorial Review:

Effectively managing personnel--as well as one's own behavior--is an extraordinarily complex task that, not surprisingly, has been the subject of countless books touting what each claims is the true path to success. That said, Marcus Buckingham and Donald O. Clifton's Now, Discover Your Strengths does indeed propose a unique approach: focusing on enhancing people's strengths rather than eliminating their weaknesses. Following up on the coauthors' popular previous book, First, Break All the Rules, it fully describes 34 positive personality themes the two have formulated (such as Achiever, Developer, Learner, and Maximizer) and explains how to build a "strengths-based organization" by capitalizing on the fact that such traits are already present among those within it.

Most original and potentially most revealing, however, is a Web-based interactive component that allows readers to complete a questionnaire developed by the Gallup Organization and instantly discover their own top-five inborn talents. This device provides a personalized window into the authors' management philosophy which, coupled with subsequent advice, places their suggestions into the kind of practical context that's missing from most similar tomes. "You can't lead a strengths revolution if you don't know how to find, name and develop your own," write Buckingham and Clifton. Their book encourages such introspection while providing knowledgeable guidance for applying its lessons. --Howard Rothman

Women & Money: Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny

Women & Money: Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny Amazon Price: $19.77
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 282 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

New Possibilities! 5 out of 5 stars.
29 of 29 people found this review helpful.

I never imagined in a million years I would pick up a book on personal
finance. I had an idea that investments and numbers were just too hard,
something I'd never understand. Reading Suze Orman's "Women & Money"
turned that notion on its head. Her warm, funny and no-nonsense book is
not only informative and empowering, it is also really enjoyable to
read. While she offers plenty of detailed and helpful financial advice,
the underlying theme throughout -and what really impacted me- is that
control of your financial destiny begins with you. How you treat your
money is an extension of how you treat yourself. Her 'Save Yourself
Plan' is about letting go of the old excuses that say 'I can't' and
letting go of the shame and blame of past decisions; it's about
empowering yourself with knowledge and starting fresh from exactly where
you are in this moment.

A wonderful companion book to Ms. Orman's that expands on these
ideas is Ariel and Shya Kane's Working on Yourself Doesn't Work: The 3 Simple Ideas That Will Instantaneously Transform Your Life. Their inspiring approach to
living in the moment (instead of in a continuous loop of worry about
the past and the future) gives you the tools to dissolve those old,
limiting stories about yourself ("I'm not good with numbers!") and step
into a life that is easy, alive, and full of possibility.

Editorial Review:

Even though women have made social advances in the past decades, they fail to have had an impact on the change of their knowledge of how to handle money. person finance expert Orzman comes to the rescue and shares her knowledge with fellow women. Invaluable start to gaining control over one of the most important issues in a woman's life. Take charge.

Built to Last CD: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies

Built to Last CD: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies Amazon Price: $21.56
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 150 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Editorial Review:

Built to Last became an instant business classic. This audio abridgement is read by the authors, who alternate chapters. Collins is a bit breathlessly enthusiastic, but clear and interesting; Porras, unfortunately, is poorly inflected and wooden. They set out to determine what's special about "visionary" companies--the Disneys, Wal-Marts, and Mercks, companies at the very top of their game that have demonstrated longevity and great brand image. The authors compare 18 "visionary" picks to a control group of "successful-but-second-rank" companies. Thus Disney is compared to Columbia Pictures, Ford to GM, and so on.

A central myth, according to the authors, is that visionary companies start with a great product and are pushed into the future by charismatic leaders. Usually false, Collins and Porras find. Much more important, and a much more telling line of demarcation between a wild success like 3M and an also-ran like Norton, is flexibility. 3M had no master plan, little structure, and no prima donnas. Instead it had an atmosphere in which bright people were not afraid to "try a lot of stuff and keep what works."

If you listen to this audiocassette on your daily commute, you may discover whether you are headed to a "visionary" place of work--and, if so, whether you are the kind of employee who fits your employer's vision. (Running time: two hours, two cassettes) --Richard Farr

Dumping Debt (Dave Ramsey's Financial Peace)

Dave Ramsey

Dumping Debt (Dave Ramsey's Financial Peace) Dave Ramsey Amazon Price: $10.17
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 5 Average rating: 4.5 of 5

Dave Ramsey's "Dumping Debt" CD - Outstanding 5 out of 5 stars.
16 of 16 people found this review helpful.

Excellent, helpful, informative, and humorous. Loved it. Played it for many of my friends and children. Everyone that has heard it said they wished they had listened to this earlier. An inexpensive, excellent buy. A must for everyone.

Some good, helpful material, but would have liked more on the CD 4 out of 5 stars.
4 of 4 people found this review helpful.

A very entertaining and educational recording about conquering debt. Dave Ramsey offers an often funny approach to steps one can take to manage debt. I thought it did go a little long into some of his illustrations (a little too much about cars for my interest) but the actual guidance and steps given were helpful and practical. As a result of hearing this recording I am curious to research more of Dave Ramsey's material.

Dumping Debt 5 out of 5 stars.
3 of 3 people found this review helpful.

I saw Dave Ramsey on TV and instantly thought this man can really help a person I Know who is facing bankruptcy. I bought it and gave it to them and they have made life changing moves. Can't give Dave Ramsey enough praise. He is logical, funny and to the point. The Dr. Laura of finance.

Great Driving information 4 out of 5 stars.
2 of 2 people found this review helpful.

This has really been an asset to me. I've enjoyed listening to it over and over again. I learn something new each time or am reminded of something I need to be doing.

Good To Great And The Social Sectors Unabr CD: A Monograph to Accompany Good to Great

Good To Great And The Social Sectors Unabr CD: A Monograph to Accompany Good to Great Amazon Price: $12.41
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Customer Reviews:
Total reviews: 3 Average rating: 4.0 of 5

So much promise . . . . falls short in the execution! 2 out of 5 stars.
4 of 4 people found this review helpful.

This book (actually I listened to the CD version) would have been a useful chapter or two published as part of the original "Good To Great" book. Unfortunately, I didn't think that it stood up well on its own. I was hoping for some sort of "aha" moment, but this 'monograph' failed to deliver. Maybe Jim Collins and his team were not able to do the same in-depth research on non-profits as was done on the Corporations for "Good To Great".
Hmmm . . . I was disappointed and thought I overpaid for the relative value I got out of 'Social Sectors'.

Excellent Follow Up To Good to Great 5 out of 5 stars.
0 of 0 people found this review helpful.

I found Good To Great very helpful and since I work in a church setting this monograph filled in some of the gaps. I highly recommend this book.

Editorial Review:

Building upon the concepts introduced in Good to Great, Jim Collins answers the most commonly asked questions raised by his readers in the social sectors. Using information gathered from interviews with over 100 social sector leaders, Jim Collins shows that his "Level 5 Leader" and other good-to-great principles can help social sector organizations make the leap to greatness.


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